Carmel Valley Home Sales Remain Low in the New Year
The Carmel Valley real estate market started 2026 with cautious optimism...
as buyers navigated a seller's market showing early signs of rebalancing. With just 1.22 months of inventory and homes averaging 30 days on market, competition remains strong, but increased listing activity suggests opportunities ahead for motivated buyers.
Across San Diego County, the single-family home market posted a median sale price of $1,050,000 in January, up 1.45% month-over-month. But in Carmel Valley's 92130 ZIP code, premium pricing and limited supply continue to define the landscape, with the average home sold for $2,646,000 (more than double the county median).
Here's what happened in Carmel Valley this January, plus a closer look at Pacific Highlands Ranch's ultra-luxury market dynamics.
Carmel Valley Market Snapshot January 2026 | The Numbers in Detail
- 22 new listings hit the market in January—a 1,000%+ surge from December's holiday lull
- 4 homes sold at an average price of $2,646,000
- 12 properties went under contract, signaling strong buyer demand
- 35 active listings available as of month-end
- 30 median days on market—slightly above the county's 26-day average
- 97.4% median close-to-list ratio—sellers are holding firm on pricing
- 1.22 months of inventory—still a seller's market, but edging toward balance
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For Sellers:
January's inventory spike doesn't signal a flood—it's a return to normal seasonal patterns after December's dead zone. With only 1.22 months of supply (6 months = balanced market), you're still in the driver's seat. Homes priced right are going under contract in 30 days, and buyers are paying 97.4% of asking price on average.
Strategy: List now before spring competition heats up. February and March historically see even more inventory, which could dilute your visibility.
For Buyers:
More choices, but not quite a buyer's market. The 12 properties under contract prove demand is alive—serious buyers are still acting quickly. With 35 active listings to choose from (versus 23 new listings last month), you finally have options beyond bidding wars.
Strategy: Don't wait for rates to drop further. The longer you wait, the more competition you'll face as inventory rises and buyers return from holiday hibernation.
Deep Dive: Carmel Valley Pricing & Inventory Trends
Sold Homes: Premium Pricing Holds Steady
January's 4 sales averaged $2,646,000, a strong showing despite the small sample size. For context, Carmel Valley's median sold price in December was $2,303,287, meaning January's average represents a significant premium (though comparing median to average isn't apples-to-apples).
What's notable: Buyers paid 97.4% of list price, down just 0.42% from December. This indicates sellers aren't panicking with price cuts—they're simply adjusting expectations slightly as inventory grows.
Active Listings: Climbing Toward Balance
With 35 single-family homes on the market, Carmel Valley's active inventory is up sharply from December's seasonal trough. The median list price for active homes sits at $3,749,000, a 12.8% month-over-month increase driven by several high-end listings entering the market.
This $3.75M median list price versus the $2.646M average sold price reveals a key dynamic: the most expensive homes are sitting longer, while move-up buyers are competing for properties under $3M.
New Listings Increase
January's 22 new listings represent a 1,050% surge from December, but don't panic. This is normal seasonality, not a crash. The holiday season always sees inventory drop, and January is when serious sellers re-enter the market.
The median list price for January's new inventory: $2,849,000, far more accessible than the $3.75M median for overall active listings. This suggests fresh inventory is targeting the move-up buyer sweet spot.
Pending Sales: Buyer Demand Alive and Well
12 properties went under contract in January, with a median list price of $2,549,950 for homes pending at month-end. This is 17.6% lower than December's pending median, indicating buyers are finding value in the $2M–$3M range rather than chasing ultra-luxury listings.
Translation: If you're selling a $2M–$3M home in Carmel Valley, you're in the hottest price band right now.
Pacific Highlands Ranch Trends
The $3.3M Question: Where Are the Buyers?
Pacific Highlands Ranch, Carmel Valley's newest master-planned community, saw zero sales in January despite 5 active listings and 2 properties going under contract. The median list price: $3,320,000.
Here's the story: PHR's inventory is sitting at the ultra-luxury price point ($3M+), and at 20 median days on market, these homes are moving faster than Carmel Valley's overall 30-day average. But with no January closings, we're likely seeing:
- Longer escrow periods from November/December contracts finally closing in February
- Buyer hesitation at the $3M+ threshold as mortgage rates hover near 7%
- Higher Mello Roos and HOA fees than other neighborhoods in Carmel Valley that don't pencil for all buyers
The silver lining: 2 pendings out of 5 active listings = 40% absorption rate in one month. That's strong. If you're selling in PHR and pricing is competitive, you could find a buyer within 3 weeks.
Market Conditions: Still a Seller's Market (But the Needle's Moving)
Carmel Valley's 1.22 months of inventory is up 20.79% from December and 6.1% year-over-year. For context:
- Under 3 months = Seller's Market
- 3–6 months = Balanced Market
- Over 6 months = Buyer's Market
At 1.22 months, sellers still have leverage, but the gap is closing. If inventory continues climbing through spring (typical seasonal pattern), we could hit 2+ months by April, further softening seller pricing power.
FAQ: Carmel Valley Real Estate – January 2026
Is Carmel Valley a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?
Carmel Valley remains a seller's market with just 1.22 months of inventory, but conditions are shifting toward balance. Homes are taking 30 days to sell (versus 21 days in December), and sellers are accepting 97.4% of list price, down slightly from 97.8% last month. Buyers have more negotiating room than six months ago, but competition is still fierce for well-priced homes under $3M.
What is the average home price in Carmel Valley right now?
January 2026 sales averaged $2,646,000 in Carmel Valley (92130 ZIP code). However, the median list price for active inventory is $3,749,000, reflecting a concentration of luxury listings. Move-up buyers are finding opportunities in the $2M–$3M range, while ultra-luxury homes above $4M are experiencing longer market times.
How long does it take to sell a home in Carmel Valley?
The median days on market in January was 30 days—up from 21 days in December. In Pacific Highlands Ranch, homes are moving faster at 20 median days on market, though this micro-neighborhood has limited sample size. Homes priced aggressively are still going under contract in 2–3 weeks, while overpriced listings are sitting 45+ days.
Is Pacific Highlands Ranch a good investment in 2026?
Pacific Highlands Ranch offers newer construction, top-rated schools (Canyon Crest Academy), and modern amenities, but at a premium. With a $3.32M median list price and zero January sales, PHR is currently serving ultra-luxury buyers with longer timelines. The 2 pendings out of 5 active listings suggest strong buyer interest, but financing at this price point limits the pool. If you're buying for the long term (10+ years), PHR's master-planned community and school access make it attractive.
Should I wait to buy a home in Carmel Valley?
Waiting for lower interest rates means competing with more buyers when rates drop. January's 22 new listings and 12 pendings prove serious buyers are acting now. If you wait until spring, you'll face increased competition as inventory rises and sideline buyers re-enter. The best strategy: buy when you find the right home, not when you think the market has bottomed.
What are the best neighborhoods in Carmel Valley for families?
Pacific Highlands Ranch offers newer construction and Canyon Crest Academy access. The Village at PHR provides walkability to restaurants and shopping. Torrey Highlands borders Del Mar and offers canyon views and Ashley Falls offers no HOA and low Mello Roos. All feed into the highly rated Del Mar Union and San Dieguito Union school districts, making Carmel Valley one of San Diego's most desirable neighborhoods.
What's Next for Carmel Valley Real Estate?
Three Trends to Watch in February
- Inventory Acceleration: January's 22 new listings will likely climb to 30–40 in February as spring selling season kicks off. More choices = slightly more buyer leverage.
- Rate Sensitivity: If mortgage rates tick back above 7%, expect the $3M+ luxury segment to slow further. Buyers under $2M are less rate-sensitive and will continue driving activity.
- Pacific Highlands Ranch Closings: January's 2 pendings should close in February, giving us a clearer picture of PHR pricing power.
Why Felicia Lewis Group for Carmel Valley?
With $350M+ in career sales and deep roots in San Diego's luxury markets including adjacent Fairbanks Ranch, Rancho Santa Fe, and Santaluz, the Felicia Lewis Group brings unmatched hyperlocal expertise to Carmel Valley. Whether you're selling a Del Mar Mesa custom estate or buying your first home in Del Mar Heights , we provide:
✔ Hyperlocal market intelligence (like this monthly report)
✔ Proven negotiation strategies that maximize value
✔ White-glove service from contract to close
Thinking of buying or selling in Carmel Valley? Let's chat!
Related:
Report Date: February 10, 2026
Data Source: RPR Market Trends Report, MLS Data (January 2026)
All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed
