You may be wondering if home prices are going to come down. After all, prices have been steadily increasing throughout the county, specifically along the coast, for the last 15+ years.
What goes up surely must come down, right?
Believe it or not, some buyers have been waiting out the market for this to happen so they can finally secure a more affordable home in sought-after neighborhoods such as the highly desirable Carmel Valley.
The reality is, that is not likely to happen – and here’s why.
It All Comes Down to Supply and Demand
The housing market works like any other market: when demand outpaces supply, prices rise. And right now, there simply aren’t enough homes to meet buyer demand.
Nationwide, the U.S. is experiencing a significant housing shortage. In fact, experts estimate we’re short by several million homes. This lack of inventory is a key factor keeping prices steady or pushing them higher. As David Childers, President of Keeping Current Matters (KCM), explains:
“The main driving force on pricing is the limited amount of inventory in most markets across the country. That issue is not going to be solved overnight or in the next twelve months.”
For Carmel Valley and surrounding areas like Del Mar and La Jolla, this is especially true. With its family-friendly communities, excellent schools, and lifestyle amenities, these area continues to attract buyers. Combine that demand with limited housing supply, and you have a recipe for steady or increasing home prices.
How Did We Get Here?
To understand the inventory shortage, you have to look back. After the 2008 housing crisis, home construction slowed dramatically. For more than a decade, builders weren’t constructing enough homes to meet growing demand. While new construction has started to pick up over the last few years, it’s still playing catch-up. In short, there simply aren’t enough homes being built to close the gap.
This is particularly relevant in a high-demand market like Carmel Valley, where land availability and zoning also play a role. New construction is limited, making resale homes even more valuable.
What About Next Year?
The majority of experts agree home prices will continue to rise in 2025, but at a slower, more sustainable pace. However, it’s important to remember that real estate is hyper-local. While national trends offer context, they don’t tell the full story for a community like Carmel Valley.
Locally, inventory remains tight, which means prices here are likely to hold steady or continue upward. If you’re considering buying or selling, it’s more important than ever to work with a local real estate expert who can interpret what’s happening right here in San Diego’s coastal communities.
Bottom Line: Let’s Talk About Your Goals
If you’re curious about home prices in Carmel Valley or surrounding areas, it all comes back to supply and demand. With inventory still low, prices are expected to remain strong.
Whether you’re a buyer trying to navigate this competitive market or a seller looking to maximize your equity, we are here to guide you. Let’s connect to discuss what’s happening in Carmel Valley and make a plan tailored to your needs. Your real estate goals are our priority.
